Taiwan Takeover Scenarios

Let's think about the unthinkable black swan. Russia has unbelievably invaded Ukraine.

Taiwan Takeover Game – 3 Scenarios

Let’s consider how Taiwan might be taken over by China. That’s kind of unthinkable, but China certainly is thinking that way. China considers Taiwan, a self-ruled nation for more than 70 years now, a renegade province. China hasn’t ruled out the possibility of an armed takeover of Taiwan if the island declares independence.

Would the United States come to Taiwan’s defense? The US has maintained “strategic ambiguity” on the issue for more than 40 years after switching diplomatic recognition to China from Taiwan. The US doesn’t “officially” recognize Taiwan but more than certainly recognizes the value of the island in the global supply chain. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) is among the world’s top-ten companies by market capitalization. Taiwan, lacking diplomatic recognition, has made itself into the world’s premier techno-state that’s indispensable to everyone.

Would the US come to Taiwan’s defense if it were attacked by China? Taiwan already is under attack by China. The war is taking place on a very subtle level.

The US has signaled that it would not defend Taiwan if it took some provocative action like developing nuclear weapons. Don’t scoff. Taiwan’s nuclear weapons program was shut down by the US in 1988.

If Taiwan were to do something provocative, like if current Vice President William Lai were — as Taiwan’s next president — to unilaterally declare independence without first coordinating with the US, the US would be unlikely to join in Taiwan’s defense.

However, if China were to invade Taiwan in the same way that Russia has invaded Ukraine, it’s much more likely that the US would defend Taiwan. The US Navy is not conducting regular patrols through the Taiwan Strait for no reason.

But, here’s just a little thought experiment on what is already happening. Let’s say China continues its grey-zone tactics under the US radar. Expanding in the South China Sea, circling Taiwan with military planes and ships, conducting cyberwar against Taiwan’s government and companies like TSMC and spreading disinformation in Taiwan. China is doing all those things now, testing Taiwan’s weaknesses.

Just imagine if China were to exploit a fatal flaw through grey-zone operations, say, an advanced persistent threat (APT) hacker group infiltrates TSMC and shuts the company down. World stock markets crash. Chips are the new oil, eh? Everyone sees how risky a place Taiwan is, but the adversary is in fact unknown. Who the heck are we fighting?

Supply chains in the Western world are stretched to the breaking point, but China, with a very complete and secure materials and manufacturing supply chain built over decades, is chugging along.

China wins a major victory, and all without fighting. How does the US come to Taiwan’s defense in this case?

Interested in learning more? Read my book.

© Alan Patterson March 12, 2022